想搞懂特朗普一定要读此文 这是美国的《隆中对》

　　本周一我们报道了美国著名纪录片导演迈克尔·摩尔(Michael Moore) 的惊人言论：特朗普可能当不成总统，他有一道难关过不去。

　　摩尔：在我的一生中，我从来没有像现在一样希望证明自己是错的

　　摩尔曾准确预言特朗普会赢得大选。他7月写了一篇文章《为什么特朗普将赢得选举的五个理由》，当时大部分政治分析师和传统媒体都一边倒地支持希拉里当选美国总统，此文被称为美国的《隆中对》。文中便解释了特朗普为何会屡发疯狂言论。

　　翻译下摩尔的履历你也许会下一跳：他是民主党人，不过他经常参加共和党的集会，他是希拉里的支持者，却预言特朗普会取得胜利。这充分证明了，最了解你的人是你的敌人。

　　多么神奇的一个人物。

　　今天英国金融时报从经济学点评特朗普，便引述了摩尔7月份那篇著名的文章。

　　“（大选中）特朗普将攻击克林顿，说她支持的NAFTA（北美自由贸易区）和TPP和其他贸易政策害了这四州的人民。在共和党密西根初选时，特朗普在福特汽车工厂的阴影下集会。他威胁说如果福特公司计划关闭该工厂将生产转移到墨西哥，他将对任何美国进口的墨西哥制造的汽车加征35%的关税。这在密西根工人耳中是如此甜美的，甜美的音乐。然后特朗普又说他要强迫苹果公司停止在中国制造iPhone手机，将生产搬回美国。这时听众乐狂了。特朗普离开集会时，他知道他已打败了这里和他竞争的俄亥俄州长卡西奇。”

　　——《为什么特朗普将赢得选举的五个理由》

　　摩尔的观察特别犀利到位。特朗普这些不靠谱的牛皮话，包括给对中国产品加征45%的关税，要墨西哥付钱在边境造万里长城，不要说经济学家会指责，就是正经些的政客也说不出来的。但是从摩尔的描述中，你可以看到锈带地区选民是如何被煽动的。这就是学者总是不敌民粹领袖的道理。

　　我们前面说过，摩尔是希拉里的支持者。虽然他7月份预言特朗普会取得胜利，但他还是竭尽全力为希拉里拉选票，这就有了他在10月份的一次著名讲话——《如果特朗普当选下届美国总统，将会是人类史上最操蛋的事》，我们从中可以一窥他对特朗普的看法：

　　如果特朗普当选美国总统，将会是人类史上最操蛋的事

　　Trump's Election Will Be The Biggest f*** You Ever Recorded In Human History

　　美国人也许会身无分文，他们也许会无家可归，他们也有可能会受人欺负，但这些都不重要。因为在未来某一天，他们所有遭遇的一切不幸都会被扳平——一个亿万富翁拥有的得票数与一个失业者的得票数相同：与跻身亿万富翁行列的人士相比，更多的前中产阶级人士已经沦落成为一贫如洗的穷人。所以，11月8日，这些失去产业的人们将会进入投票站，极不情愿地投出自己的一票，然后拉上窗帘，用自己的工具或者毛笔，或者用触摸屏在投票箱上写下一个巨大的操蛋名字，这个名字就是威胁要颠覆并且推翻现有政治体系，并毁了选民们生活的唐纳德·特朗普。

　　是的，在11月8日，无论是乔·布朗、史蒂夫·布朗，还是鲍勃·布朗等等的所有人都需要去给这个该死的政治选举体系投票，因为这是宪法赋予你的权利。而特朗普的参选将会是写入人类历史的一件最操蛋的事。而这件操蛋事似乎让人们感觉还不错。

　　我知道很多密歇根州的居民都计划给特朗普投票，虽然他们不一定认同特朗普的观点。这些居民不是种族主义者也不是乡下佬。他们实际上是我后面将会提及的体面人士。

　　唐纳德·特朗普来到底特律的经济俱乐部，站在福特汽车公司所有的高管面前说：“假如你们按自己的计划关闭所有位于底特律的工厂，并将它们搬迁至墨西哥。我将会对这些从墨西哥进口的汽车征收35%的关税，而人们也不会去购买这些车辆。”这是我们看到过的一件了不起的事情。无论是来自共和党还是民主党，没有任何政治家像特朗普这样，对福特公司的高管们颐指气使。对于身在密歇根州、俄亥俄州、宾夕法尼亚州和威斯康星州的居民来说，特朗普的言论听起来就像是美妙的音乐——这些州居民都有着跟“英国脱欧”一样的分裂心态。

　　如果你身在俄亥俄州，你一定知道我在说什么。无论特朗普是否有这样的暗示，但都已经无关紧要。因为特朗普的言论提及谁就是对谁的一种伤害。这也是他击败每一个对手或籍籍无名者（视频）的原因所在。那些被遗忘的傻瓜职业人士曾经被称作是热爱特朗普的中产阶级。特朗普是这些人士一直期待的莫洛托夫鸡尾酒；这些人的无形之力是巨大的，他们可以合法地将特朗普亲手送入偷走他们生活的政治体系。到11月8日这一天，尽管这些人已经失去了自己的工作，虽然银行已经取消了他们的抵押品赎回权；接下来他们将会面临离婚，他们的妻子和孩子现在已经离开了他们；他们的汽车已经被贱卖，一年之内没有一个真正的假期；他们依然坚持相信奥巴马政府的操蛋青铜计划，甚至对此还抱有幻想。除了一件事之外，他们基本上已经一无所有——一件让他们不会花费一文钱的事情，那就是美国宪法对他们的保证：他们拥有自己的投票权。

　　他们看到，毁了他们生活的社会精英是如此痛恨特朗普。美国公司痛恨特朗普，华尔街人士痛恨特朗普；职业政治家痛恨特朗普。新闻媒体也同样痛恨特朗普，他们曾经热爱特朗普并成就了特朗普，但现在也开始对他产生了憎恶的感觉。谢谢媒体：敌人的敌人就是朋友，而而特朗普的对手也是我在11月8日的投票人选。

　　是的，在11月8日，无论是乔·布朗、史蒂夫·布朗，还是鲍勃·布朗等等的所有人，都需要去给这个该死的政治选举体系投票，因为这是宪法赋予你的权利。而特朗普的当选将会是写入人类历史的一件最操蛋的事情。而这件操蛋事情似乎让人们感觉还不错。

　　怎么样，看上去一个大大咧咧的人，却对特朗普的研究非常透彻和精准。

　　最后我们附上《为什么特朗普将赢得选举的五个理由(原文)》：

　　为什么特朗普将赢得选举的五个理由

　　Friends:

　　I am sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but I gave it to you straight last summer when I told you that Donald Trump would be the Republican nominee for president. And now I have even more awful, depressing news for you: Donald J. Trump is going to win in November. This wretched, ignorant, dangerous part-time clown and full time sociopath is going to be our next president. President Trump. Go ahead and say the words, ‘cause you’ll be saying them for the next four years: “PRESIDENT TRUMP.”

　　Never in my life have I wanted to be proven wrong more than I do right now.

　　I can see what you’re doing right now. You’re shaking your head wildly – “No, Mike, this won’t happen!” Unfortunately, you are living in a bubble that comes with an adjoining echo chamber where you and your friends are convinced the American people are not going to elect an idiot for president. You alternate between being appalled at him and laughing at him because of his latest crazy comment or his embarrassingly narcissistic stance on everything because everything is about him. And then you listen to Hillary and you behold our very first female president, someone the world respects, someone who is whip-smart and cares about kids, who will continue the Obama legacy because that is what the American people clearly want! Yes! Four more years of this!

　　You need to exit that bubble right now. You need to stop living in denial and face the truth which you know deep down is very, very real. Trying to soothe yourself with the facts – “77% of the electorate are women, people of color, young adults under 35 and Trump cant win a majority of any of them!” – or logic – “people aren’t going to vote for a buffoon or against their own best interests!” – is your brain’s way of trying to protect you from trauma. Like when you hear a loud noise on the street and you think, “oh, a tire just blew out,” or, “wow, who’s playing with firecrackers?” because you don’t want to think you just heard someone being shot with a gun. It’s the same reason why all the initial news and eyewitness reports on 9/11 said “a small plane accidentally flew into the World Trade Center.” We want to – we need to – hope for the best because, frankly, life is already a shit show and it’s hard enough struggling to get by from paycheck to paycheck. We can’t handle much more bad news. So our mental state goes to default when something scary is actually, truly happening. The first people plowed down by the truck in Nice spent their final moments on earth waving at the driver whom they thought had simply lost control of his truck, trying to tell him that he jumped the curb: “Watch out!,” they shouted. “There are people on the sidewalk!”

　　Well, folks, this isn’t an accident. It is happening. And if you believe Hillary Clinton is going to beat Trump with facts and smarts and logic, then you obviously missed the past year of 56 primaries and caucuses where 16 Republican candidates tried that and every kitchen sink they could throw at Trump and nothing could stop his juggernaut. As of today, as things stand now, I believe this is going to happen – and in order to deal with it, I need you first to acknowledge it, and then maybe, just maybe, we can find a way out of the mess we’re in.

　　Don’t get me wrong. I have great hope for the country I live in. Things are better. The left has won the cultural wars. Gays and lesbians can get married. A majority of Americans now take the liberal position on just about every polling question posed to them: Equal pay for women – check. Abortion should be legal – check. Stronger environmental laws – check. More gun control – check. Legalize marijuana – check. A huge shift has taken place – just ask the socialist who won 22 states this year. And there is no doubt in my mind that if people could vote from their couch at home on their X-box or PlayStation, Hillary would win in a landslide.

　　But that is not how it works in America. People have to leave the house and get in line to vote. And if they live in poor, Black or Hispanic neighborhoods, they not only have a longer line to wait in, everything is being done to literally stop them from casting a ballot. So in most elections it’s hard to get even 50% to turn out to vote. And therein lies the problem for November – who is going to have the most motivated, most inspired voters show up to vote? You know the answer to this question. Who’s the candidate with the most rabid supporters? Whose crazed fans are going to be up at 5 AM on Election Day, kicking ass all day long, all the way until the last polling place has closed, making sure every Tom, Dick and Harry (and Bob and Joe and Billy Bob and Billy Joe and Billy Bob Joe) has cast his ballot? That’s right. That’s the high level of danger we’re in. And don’t fool yourself — no amount of compelling Hillary TV ads, or outfacting him in the debates or Libertarians siphoning votes away from Trump is going to stop his mojo.

　　Here are the 5 reasons Trump is going to win:

　　1、

　　Midwest Math, or Welcome to Our Rust Belt Brexit. I believe Trump is going to focus much of his attention on the four blue states in the rustbelt of the upper Great Lakes – Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Four traditionally Democratic states – but each of them have elected a Republican governor since 2010 (only Pennsylvania has now finally elected a Democrat). In the Michigan primary in March, more Michiganders came out to vote for the Republicans (1.32 million) that the Democrats (1.19 million). Trump is ahead of Hillary in the latest polls in Pennsylvania and tied with her in Ohio. Tied? How can the race be this close after everything Trump has said and done? Well maybe it’s because he’s said (correctly) that the Clintons’ support of NAFTA helped to destroy the industrial states of the Upper Midwest. Trump is going to hammer Clinton on this and her support of TPP and other trade policies that have royally screwed the people of these four states. When Trump stood in the shadow of a Ford Motor factory during the Michigan primary, he threatened the corporation that if they did indeed go ahead with their planned closure of that factory and move it to Mexico, he would slap a 35% tariff on any Mexican-built cars shipped back to the United States. It was sweet, sweet music to the ears of the working class of Michigan, and when he tossed in his threat to Apple that he would force them to stop making their iPhones in China and build them here in America, well, hearts swooned and Trump walked away with a big victory that should have gone to the governor next-door, John Kasich.

　　From Green Bay to Pittsburgh, this, my friends, is the middle of England – broken, depressed, struggling, the smokestacks strewn across the countryside with the carcass of what we use to call the Middle Class. Angry, embittered working (and nonworking) people who were lied to by the trickle-down of Reagan and abandoned by Democrats who still try to talk a good line but are really just looking forward to rub one out with a lobbyist from Goldman Sachs who’ll write them nice big check before leaving the room. What happened in the UK with Brexit is going to happen here. Elmer Gantry shows up looking like Boris Johnson and just says whatever shit he can make up to convince the masses that this is their chance! To stick to ALL of them, all who wrecked their American Dream! And now The Outsider, Donald Trump, has arrived to clean house! You don’t have to agree with him! You don’t even have to like him! He is your personal Molotov cocktail to throw right into the center of the bastards who did this to you! SEND A MESSAGE! TRUMP IS YOUR MESSENGER!

　　And this is where the math comes in. In 2012, Mitt Romney lost by 64 electoral votes. Add up the electoral votes cast by Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. It’s 64. All Trump needs to do to win is to carry, as he’s expected to do, the swath of traditional red states from Idaho to Georgia (states that’ll never vote for Hillary Clinton), and then he just needs these four rust belt states. He doesn’t need Florida. He doesn’t need Colorado or Virginia. Just Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And that will put him over the top. This is how it will happen in November.

　　2、

　　The Last Stand of the Angry White Man. Our male-dominated, 240-year run of the USA is coming to an end. A woman is about to take over! How did this happen?! On our watch! There were warning signs, but we ignored them. Nixon, the gender traitor, imposing Title IX on us, the rule that said girls in school should get an equal chance at playing sports. Then they let them fly commercial jets. Before we knew it, Beyoncé stormed on the field at this year’s Super Bowl (our game!) with an army of Black Women, fists raised, declaring that our domination was hereby terminated! Oh, the humanity!

　　That’s a small peek into the mind of the Endangered White Male. There is a sense that the power has slipped out of their hands, that their way of doing things is no longer how things are done. This monster, the “Feminazi,”the thing that as Trump says, “bleeds through her eyes or wherever she bleeds,” has conquered us — and now, after having had to endure eight years of a black man telling us what to do, we’re supposed to just sit back and take eight years of a woman bossing us around? After that it’ll be eight years of the gays in the White House! Then the transgenders! You can see where this is going. By then animals will have been granted human rights and a f***in’ hamster is going to be running the country. This has to stop!

　　3、

　　The Hillary Problem. Can we speak honestly, just among ourselves? And before we do, let me state, I actually like Hillary – a lot – and I think she has been given a bad rap she doesn’t deserve. But her vote for the Iraq War made me promise her that I would never vote for her again. To date, I haven’t broken that promise. For the sake of preventing a proto-fascist from becoming our commander-in-chief, I’m breaking that promise. I sadly believe Clinton will find a way to get us in some kind of military action. She’s a hawk, to the right of Obama. But Trump’s psycho finger will be on The Button, and that is that. Done and done.

　　Let’s face it: Our biggest problem here isn’t Trump – it’s Hillary. She is hugely unpopular — nearly 70% of all voters think she is untrustworthy and dishonest. She represents the old way of politics, not really believing in anything other than what can get you elected. That’s why she fights against gays getting married one moment, and the next she’s officiating a gay marriage. Young women are among her biggest detractors, which has to hurt considering it’s the sacrifices and the battles that Hillary and other women of her generation endured so that this younger generation would never have to be told by the Barbara Bushes of the world that they should just shut up and go bake some cookies. But the kids don’t like her, and not a day goes by that a millennial doesn’t tell me they aren’t voting for her. No Democrat, and certainly no independent, is waking up on November 8th excited to run out and vote for Hillary the way they did the day Obama became president or when Bernie was on the primary ballot. The enthusiasm just isn’t there. And because this election is going to come down to just one thing — who drags the most people out of the house and gets them to the polls — Trump right now is in the catbird seat.

　　4、

　　The Depressed Sanders Vote. Stop fretting about Bernie’s supporters not voting for Clinton – we’re voting for Clinton! The polls already show that more Sanders voters will vote for Hillary this year than the number of Hillary primary voters in ’08 who then voted for Obama. This is not the problem. The fire alarm that should be going off is that while the average Bernie backer will drag him/herself to the polls that day to somewhat reluctantly vote for Hillary, it will be what’s called a “depressed vote” – meaning the voter doesn’t bring five people to vote with her. He doesn’t volunteer 10 hours in the month leading up to the election. She never talks in an excited voice when asked why she’s voting for Hillary. A depressed voter. Because, when you’re young, you have zero tolerance for phonies and BS. Returning to the Clinton/Bush era for them is like suddenly having to pay for music, or using MySpace or carrying around one of those big-ass portable phones. They’re not going to vote for Trump; some will vote third party, but many will just stay home. Hillary Clinton is going to have to do something to give them a reason to support her — and picking a moderate, bland-o, middle of the road old white guy as her running mate is not the kind of edgy move that tells millenials that their vote is important to Hillary. Having two women on the ticket – that was an exciting idea. But then Hillary got scared and has decided to play it safe. This is just one example of how she is killing the youth vote.

　　5、

　　The Jesse Ventura Effect. Finally, do not discount the electorate’s ability to be mischievous or underestimate how any millions fancy themselves as closet anarchists once they draw the curtain and are all alone in the voting booth. It’s one of the few places left in society where there are no security cameras, no listening devices, no spouses, no kids, no boss, no cops, there’s not even a friggin’ time limit. You can take as long as you need in there and no one can make you do anything. You can push the button and vote a straight party line, or you can write in Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck. There are no rules. And because of that, and the anger that so many have toward a broken political system, millions are going to vote for Trump not because they agree with him, not because they like his bigotry or ego, but just because they can. Just because it will upset the apple cart and make mommy and daddy mad. And in the same way like when you’re standing on the edge of Niagara Falls and your mind wonders for a moment what would that feel like to go over that thing, a lot of people are going to love being in the position of puppetmaster and plunking down for Trump just to see what that might look like. Remember back in the ‘90s when the people of Minnesota elected a professional wrestler as their governor? They didn’t do this because they’re stupid or thought that Jesse Ventura was some sort of statesman or political intellectual. They did so just because they could. Minnesota is one of the smartest states in the country. It is also filled with people who have a dark sense of humor — and voting for Ventura was their version of a good practical joke on a sick political system. This is going to happen again with Trump.

　　Coming back to the hotel after appearing on Bill Maher’s Republican Convention special this week on HBO, a man stopped me. “Mike,” he said, “we have to vote for Trump. We HAVE to shake things up.” That was it. That was enough for him. To “shake things up.” President Trump would indeed do just that, and a good chunk of the electorate would like to sit in the bleachers and watch that reality show.

　　(Next week I will post my thoughts on Trump’s Achilles Heel and how I think he can be beat.)

　　ALSO: http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/michael-moores-5-reasons-why-trump-will-win

　　Yours,

　　Michael Moore