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虽然知道离Busiess020 的最后考试还有一段时间。但是贴出来给大家先有个映像,别到考试的时候抱佛脚。我还会陆续贴出History028E的去年考试卷子。9 A/ N! k) ~: a6 M+ }
' K/ ~/ R+ O7 B; s/ T( JGM Overview! q/ a, V, B6 Z9 {
• Role, Timing, Issues/Decisions, C&Cs( A% |0 L: e" N$ Q" x
• Objectives( E; r+ F, C$ t6 l9 Q/ G _
– What do we “WANT” to do?
, J9 t$ h& |# A( a4 {• External Analysis
7 `5 u* a0 s( W0 g– What do we “NEED” to do?- j' E) E, T3 W! d6 W
– PEST, Consumer, Competition, Trade
6 E. e& H0 G9 A4 _6 U& b% U• opportunities & threats
' N: L, Y' I* @8 M– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs3 X9 Q9 g6 g. y( T, ^
• Internal Analysis/ O* `: \* W z6 A% |! o, N& t8 j
– What “CAN” we do?" P/ k8 P3 D" z) l) \/ X
– Finance, Marketing, Ops, HR- c1 T* h6 Z/ V& U# L0 T
• abilities, strengths & weaknesses
: A& @: D. P' w6 g6 ]# Q( ^– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs, CORPORATE CAPABILITIES7 b. f* E+ P: B: N3 X
; [) T! H8 i% y5 J. Q+ T5 E• Alternative Evaluation
( Y& l4 u) _8 Z+ x9 ]– What are the options?" ]( f" c. d# _! D+ i- Y6 p
– Evaluate the pros & cons of the options
0 L8 Q8 I4 T8 {5 A* u/ O– How does this option “FIT”?3 y, _% A ` ?- z) t2 q6 u
– (you may be able to eliminate options based exclusively on the poor “FIT”qualitatively - if so, make sure you explain why this option was nixed)
. r# W: b- m7 \# n. U) X– Financial Feasibility (of AT LEAST 2-3 options that might “work”)
+ U: K$ S6 s9 F
6 O. H& a" W9 ]• Decision" r7 n, | V" t' s; u
– Justify why you chose a particular option(s).
/ ]+ A4 I9 X9 t, S/ P" f! q+ F) P– YOU SHOULD BE CONVINCING, E( h9 G: @2 {+ K
• Which strategy best meets the firm’s objectives?, P2 ]3 E- k( g Q2 }" j
• Does it satisfy the personal objectives as well?
3 N5 s$ R9 u; u% P' e. e. K6 r2 t• Have you addressed the cons of the chosen alternative?( T1 M0 l" |( ^& r2 n. C
• Is this decision consistent with the analysis you’ve done? EXPLAIN! (FITS)0 W' o* p: d7 F6 A _
• Why NOT the other options?
! n% \; f# Y* J2 l4 e% V0 i• How does this choice affect Finance, Marketing, Ops and HR? What changes
0 \2 J3 V) v/ w3 w: D% ?% G' _7 K" |need to be made?+ E. V; V6 o) ^
9 _0 M/ M. e- {
• Action Plan9 w) Q6 J! j6 X9 N( L4 D
• Map out a clear and precise implementation plan which includes;
, }4 M8 E9 h b3 T/ \5 m# j% ^– details which address what steps you have to take to implement your3 J9 l& @ ?. N, |) q/ R$ y
decision
; {% V9 m0 r7 e6 P& {6 f– details about timing+ T3 k t8 H( V
– details about WHO will be responsible for accomplishing the ‘task’/ m! _( z) p; c
– how will you follow-up your plan (measure success)
% b0 {/ e' j2 s% @& X/ k$ g: C– make sure to consider both the short term and long term9 @2 G! K( T% G7 j
1 [6 ]0 f( J; ?; l9 c* }# K `
Firm Valuation
" {0 O! o0 E/ M" r* e• Used to help managers determine the “price” of a company.
, f* f: A1 W, W4 r: x• 3 methods of valuing a firm;
1 l% c- y2 j7 M0 ?# Q– Net Book Value
# H( _* H1 f" J" q) i1 G3 t– Economic Appraisal
, w! r$ G7 W+ q: [% X! e' ?7 M3 U– Capitalization of Earnings
; H4 g# B) y! }6 F# u+ @* ?. u• Using all 3 methods (if possible) helps us to determine a RANGE of what the
1 V! s9 z" g Z9 U" U+ u( v4 K/ dcompany is worth.
6 s6 V( H0 c7 \9 B• THINK!!! What are you really selling? Will anyone pay for it? How much will they pay???
! O1 Y* b# j1 d7 b3 e+ }% p( T2 X. V* l2 Y* n) J
Net Book Value (NBV)
% v' n. c$ r0 |: n% S* H3 K2 k– Total Assets - Total Liabilities
$ U/ o9 J0 L0 p W- ^• a.k.a.. the equity A+ h& m- _& b/ ^, D, V ]
– Does not account for the present market value of the assets
1 |3 S. ^, l O" ^6 J– Calculated using the most recent given balance sheet2 p, Y& o, H3 J! V: f$ B
– Preferred method for banks, creditors, and/or buyers who are interested in selling off the assets of the business
6 ~8 g% i6 k# U, @ J- g) j" k1 U7 ?) D
Economic Appraisal (EA)
# J, a) F8 K" V4 P& }' H– Similar to NBV, but tries to reflect the current market value of the assets
9 T' W& P/ a) A3 [– Total Appraised Assets – Total Liabilities+ W( J/ K. O3 o" z* N0 k! J
– Preferred by buyers who are interested in a company for its assets2 O; M2 A1 H1 d# ?/ u
8 T% G# S$ X3 B6 `( f7 h; ? Capitalization of Earnings (CE)& G/ Z* ?7 U p4 \+ Z# M- P& C& ~
– Focuses on the I/S instead of the B/S
- B& @5 O3 T4 }0 t5 T• Attempt to value the company in terms of the future income it may provide.6 B0 N* W" l' P5 C( K/ H! n# _" Z
– NPAT * P/E ratio = value! f$ ^& v- a0 }1 \+ A
– Must evaluate two different earnings figures (to determine risk & range); C, H! m4 ?5 l- F
• Assuming changes (projected statement)* q7 b3 f7 p; @3 T' A3 U$ X* a
• Assuming no changes (current given I/S)2 {8 h/ R' \/ S/ K0 S! m9 o' ~
– Select a reasonable P/E multiple: `- D: Q" U! ]% b" O
– Preferred by buyers interested in the ongoing operation of the company (i.e.taking over as management)
/ P" w) L, Z9 |) T( l9 r, k* C. Y8 u# t6 p% d0 E
• P/E Multiple& H$ d! U$ ?: c4 I/ c( {7 g; K+ d
– Rules of thumb;+ X: Z+ B1 O+ L2 {% u7 |# Q
• Mature industries with stable earnings tend to have multiples
. ~/ C( j5 W+ @1 B- Cfrom 5 to 15.
$ C: J$ J% \/ V• High growth industries tend to have multiples exceeding 20.. B J* B$ w- t& A4 j4 g
• “Growth is good; risk is rotten!”# o' U8 A1 q6 R. Q( x& @
– growth increases a multiple
/ {/ v" e% e# b; u9 G2 s% @– risk decreases a multiple
! X6 r' ~; Y; _0 n' c, g( b; F, i. |. H K2 ^1 g
Their Associated Ratios8 T/ Z, M& P5 h
• Profitability;3 A) f, }2 s0 h, S, Q
– Business goal - to make $$
/ q3 x! N$ q+ J2 _3 I/ N– Ratios measures how much money we had to spend to make $X in sales
4 r* F! B9 `% ?7 p2 g• Stability;" D- d# J1 K* H' }
– Business goal - to have a stable financial structure (balance its ownership of assets with debt and equity)9 }8 H/ g: ^5 z1 _; l# T
– Ratios measure the firm’s means of financing assets and ability to pay interest on debts
: D2 j6 Y$ P/ L, \% ]( o: t: X9 ?/ h# Y
5 Financial Goals &Their Associated Ratios
) v: N& }( x% |6 s! F7 c" S8 u p • Liquidity;
1 @, j T4 B+ b; g }% Z% N ~, |9 n: a– Business goal - ability to meet s-t obligations, Y8 S% G4 J" F9 y1 r& i+ O
– Ratios measure how liquid the firm is (how able the firm is to pay its shortterm0 q. K2 }% y5 _8 }: o. C/ \* B, W- q
obligations)+ ]( U; x7 _5 f# T2 h1 x
• Efficiency;6 w9 a" W8 j1 n# E7 B. w9 h. b0 O
– Business goal - to efficiently use assets
- k6 `5 P2 `7 e" s/ L5 m" H: F– Ratios tell us how efficiently we are using our investments
: S/ r) k: Z- B" j. p# {& {/ X6 o
• Growth;9 F8 e1 N/ U+ j; K1 y2 z8 I* t) n
– Business goal - to increase in size1 E8 |9 i/ P) a
– Ratios tell us whether the company is achieving any growth
* w% G- w, r' v& L; |
7 N/ P4 i/ Q, H& c' ]Interpreting the Ratios
& @+ e, O% A& f0 {• Profitability;% E4 r1 b/ h7 K5 r; }
– Vertical Analysis (of I/S)
' T/ j1 D+ D. [$ `+ d$ |I/S items * 100 = %
) X4 S9 }: x# j; j1 C3 W+ q Sales
f2 k) A9 X# j) b6 \9 r3 m• Tells us it cost us X% of sales to make those sales; }/ T- d+ s0 q, U1 |
– Return on Investment/Equity0 X5 f+ c8 G5 X: ]2 ]* B7 @
Profit ATB4D = % 5 r* U7 w5 G) r5 J2 H* c7 L
Average Equity
# M2 y$ _! V5 x. Y# Q& P+ G[(Yr. 1 E + Yr. 2 E)/2]
3 _# \/ W7 Z8 W6 H- O• Tells us how much profit we made relative to the investment made by the owners& J2 A' B8 t' V1 @
/ m) u% K& n4 ?- l& K2 A3 |• Stability;
( t ]; ^: a& C: \6 T/ `8 Q% y– Net Worth: Total Assets) T6 i' k, h3 Q% {2 Q) ~) y3 C
Total Equity = %
/ q3 n$ G6 Y! A7 JTotal Assets4 a8 f8 d+ c! T b7 Z, S0 Y
• tells us what % of assets were financed through owner’s money
2 _ H: G, J* f7 \4 l2 X– Debt to Assets8 |7 E- A4 V2 G# w4 }6 V) d& o
Total Debt = %
& c+ X0 c' h, G# e# uTotal Assets
5 o1 P# \! `% L' d8 J• Tells us what % of the assets were financed through debt( `9 T9 I4 e9 m, e5 L- K
– Interest Coverage
( S& B) `1 S- c2 n1 p( y+ |' N EBIT = # times
1 P$ a4 q6 |; I( ?Interest Expense
) D' D; ]$ a% ^& L& h3 B" V: P• tells us how many times we can pay interest: W# R, x/ ]8 n8 \) `. i
, t# i/ T8 I' q( h S• Liquidity;
$ `8 Z' H% B% E }( y8 Y% n/ x– Current Ratio
, b4 p: {. Y6 b& z2 rCurrent Assets = X:1
3 S' I% r0 j2 [$ h' OCurrent Liabilities
1 H% V2 [+ e: N) X+ c. }• Tells us, if we liquidated all our current assets, how many times we can pay our debts9 @' s- w. g4 A
RULE OF THUMB: 2:1
0 G) K6 y$ W0 `: Q9 l+ w' j– Acid Test2 P. V: y# c' x: p
Cash + M/S + A/R = X:1
( s4 s) k) R1 Y) c, VCurrent Liabilities- \; `/ H. P- I# ]
• Tells us how many times we can pay our debts with the money easily available to us5 g3 }* i k1 k" Y
RULE OF THUMB: 1:1' M- R+ s8 U C3 V0 @
! d+ U7 x9 J& S4 p" b– Working Capital
8 k! G/ `; d, Z! P( ~0 X9 rC.A - C.L = $X' ~8 e" ?/ O9 Y
• Tells us how much money we have to work with AFTER s-t debts are paid
4 ?! a3 F. h8 c. B9 O, C% k7 w/ q% Y& `& B! P- O+ U, p
Efficiency;
7 z, p/ j) {% V6 Q. x0 m& E; W– Age of Receivables
( m( e9 V" W! K' F. ]0 JAccounts Receivabl = # Days2 f/ {1 y- i! g2 m% y; K
(Sales / 365)% j! H* j! o& p2 q4 H
• Tells us how long it takes us to collect our $$
4 z9 A( \; Z$ F1 {3 J' w' ?
1 c6 F+ ?8 h! Q$ f. m– Age Of Payables, T! V! Y7 O7 i
Accounts Payable = # Days
% o6 [4 F/ S# D(Purchases* / 365)
w- Q+ X7 B/ O+ {5 q• Tells us how long it takes us to pay our bills: U5 @# H9 _2 b' I. v7 h
6 I; ?' T9 Z9 I/ i; _
– Age of Inventory s( c, B/ \& r' z8 X
Inventory = # Days) w% R; {+ n$ Q/ O/ g# z
(COGS / 365)8 p9 D, n% `% G$ P0 B. k1 Z
• Tells us how long we are holding on to our inventory in the warehouse9 x9 B+ O$ w* n8 r' h( O8 W# U' j
( i9 O, T1 O, D: J7 z• Growth;
2 \; c4 ?3 o4 e– Sales6 f7 t# O1 y+ m$ }3 O7 H
– Net Income, q5 j) m% S3 Z
– Total Assets
% {: O4 B: c8 {& L0 } D– Equity; e/ \2 T) a; x
Yr. 2 - Yr. 1 = %2 I. V' s/ |' j( q9 S
Yr. 1$ D+ F/ y; x$ ~
• Tells us whether the accounts are growing (and hence the company)" S: c2 S8 s* A: g7 t/ p: I' n
8 q3 M. n3 g. q4 k$ E. [& aUnderstanding Ratios
6 A" |( y$ S) i) m! ^* D0 v' E/ N• DO NOT CONCLUDE THAT “THE RATIO IS GOOD/BAD”
& Q) B" M, \) _+ @& b% x• Either the NUMERATOR or the DENOMINATOR affects the ratio+ G7 H; N6 w: [8 J' e
• Ask yourself: “WHY HAS THE RATIO CHANGED & WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?”' x& ~1 |' q4 x, x# ?" P9 b
– Which number caused the change?
" _$ p6 {0 [( h( ?– Look for increasing or decreasing trends over time.
2 o) U) V/ B/ M5 F! Z. U: v0 j( g– Will these trends continue?
$ {6 J6 A6 u9 Y/ C) I) b5 h- [% w– How does the company compare to the industry?4 b0 F& h% a# W. u0 L/ E1 D* y
9 ~- f6 N8 x' ]" h6 N! b
! R( W2 [; B0 y9 zClassifying Costs7 l* k3 H( S) N1 u7 k
• Variable Costs8 R0 f. P7 L1 f) S3 H2 b) n: k4 J
– a cost incurred with every unit sold/produced (volume)
% B% p# N' s* m: z b• Fixed Costs
`; T6 m }6 D: i2 a– cost that does not vary with volume |
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