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虽然知道离Busiess020 的最后考试还有一段时间。但是贴出来给大家先有个映像,别到考试的时候抱佛脚。我还会陆续贴出History028E的去年考试卷子。" @/ v8 j9 z/ }3 e5 q$ }: H4 r. X2 G$ z
' N# N4 G7 W3 q0 `) xGM Overview. b! |, b7 I7 [6 H
• Role, Timing, Issues/Decisions, C&Cs! D+ t' z% y$ w) T! v* \' z# g
• Objectives2 L h& g- x0 d3 K) {
– What do we “WANT” to do?! P3 {) y( }2 C: N+ b
• External Analysis
3 V! @8 R, H+ n' J6 t% `$ b– What do we “NEED” to do?- C& b5 {; i; h M ]6 j/ G
– PEST, Consumer, Competition, Trade
" E; A5 R4 q! U• opportunities & threats! F% o. Z+ ~2 X$ g- i( D
– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs
( ?: W- S" o7 Q9 D `• Internal Analysis
% g$ M; h3 d: L) C h– What “CAN” we do?/ [, c6 M' F: q5 d3 S) X# }
– Finance, Marketing, Ops, HR
$ D! j( i5 |% T$ Y/ {/ x3 G$ K• abilities, strengths & weaknesses
8 `# l/ `* T, O6 \6 ?– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs, CORPORATE CAPABILITIES
& l2 d ]6 I8 s6 o1 P2 |0 F
: q8 h) S9 H! J4 o% |• Alternative Evaluation
5 Z* a1 N+ x: c" ]9 b– What are the options?
( {9 d8 Y( @6 n4 L1 M. f, i' w– Evaluate the pros & cons of the options
7 A7 g4 V2 s: x) w– How does this option “FIT”?
8 r8 m. W7 B+ p3 u4 }: Y/ u N! U– (you may be able to eliminate options based exclusively on the poor “FIT”qualitatively - if so, make sure you explain why this option was nixed)5 x! h: j8 l- ^4 T
– Financial Feasibility (of AT LEAST 2-3 options that might “work”)
u3 I# @+ J& ]$ ] H6 d" b3 ] z" V+ U4 c: {
• Decision
9 i" i: P- S! b, O– Justify why you chose a particular option(s).
0 ?' a7 v/ j2 K1 ]– YOU SHOULD BE CONVINCING
/ r/ Q; r0 c+ ~% N0 A1 Z/ e) l• Which strategy best meets the firm’s objectives?! p* h8 N5 e* ]* e7 L: t) E3 G
• Does it satisfy the personal objectives as well?/ Z+ M. [1 C8 Z) H, I
• Have you addressed the cons of the chosen alternative?. I& z) G* c( `) k. P' i& w
• Is this decision consistent with the analysis you’ve done? EXPLAIN! (FITS)
8 j% o6 o" x% M5 N8 I" O U4 V• Why NOT the other options?
g1 }8 F- ?- u, Y D* b, ^• How does this choice affect Finance, Marketing, Ops and HR? What changes
9 C* b+ l! r) M! ?need to be made?0 h) I3 t* ? F
; E& F. R6 R2 C2 |• Action Plan9 X% p0 c" W8 L! X
• Map out a clear and precise implementation plan which includes;
0 U4 u7 Z- x7 x) o/ \$ C" N" m– details which address what steps you have to take to implement your
/ Y2 z) K( v: V# S) \decision' N B1 D" q2 Q* O( e
– details about timing i2 x! Z- I( N4 ]+ L6 v
– details about WHO will be responsible for accomplishing the ‘task’, H* \ G" G4 `
– how will you follow-up your plan (measure success)# l5 s3 o C" B& m! D
– make sure to consider both the short term and long term' i3 `/ C7 u* g, t) x7 i
: g5 c( A$ O r* @* j IFirm Valuation3 q+ M1 l5 n, @4 j3 A
• Used to help managers determine the “price” of a company.
2 D! U j( C3 h• 3 methods of valuing a firm;
9 }+ G- R9 ?/ N8 X/ c– Net Book Value7 z: q) ^4 K; W# e/ o, e" M0 B
– Economic Appraisal! ?+ {& n! g7 f7 l! J1 d& q5 l) X
– Capitalization of Earnings
1 P8 R& `' t4 \% t• Using all 3 methods (if possible) helps us to determine a RANGE of what the
& P4 i& i0 r! t" h" A* ycompany is worth.
. K Z$ |& X; D6 C, f: V1 ?* r• THINK!!! What are you really selling? Will anyone pay for it? How much will they pay???
; t: |( n, U z: b% m9 Y
7 }* {* k/ s" h2 F, \6 R Net Book Value (NBV)1 o- N9 o5 I& `9 |- Q$ S
– Total Assets - Total Liabilities5 O& h9 H! c O/ D( W# X& U
• a.k.a.. the equity( s* X* H# ^( D& B2 o( X
– Does not account for the present market value of the assets1 T4 C6 e2 U% e2 }
– Calculated using the most recent given balance sheet
- g4 o! R* R6 P3 M! V( a; m+ i– Preferred method for banks, creditors, and/or buyers who are interested in selling off the assets of the business& a; @8 L# Y* [7 h
6 c1 g8 m; ]% f$ z
Economic Appraisal (EA)( z$ D# @ w- y$ S& K. r# I
– Similar to NBV, but tries to reflect the current market value of the assets
4 M& z' X2 a' }& D! l0 K( D– Total Appraised Assets – Total Liabilities
, T2 `$ n: @6 D3 U6 j/ @+ O– Preferred by buyers who are interested in a company for its assets
) Y8 I/ k* x7 Z4 R
8 K3 ~: P+ R G/ Z$ y Capitalization of Earnings (CE): ~; u- n# H4 T% L& K! b
– Focuses on the I/S instead of the B/S" N' w5 E+ x& @0 v7 A
• Attempt to value the company in terms of the future income it may provide.
( N& ?6 }) N0 F: w7 N0 u– NPAT * P/E ratio = value
8 i1 w( C, Y9 J' B. k9 R$ P9 Z4 t– Must evaluate two different earnings figures (to determine risk & range)
0 T% |8 a" N) h• Assuming changes (projected statement)
8 R' y% Y4 X9 ]• Assuming no changes (current given I/S)- I. }2 L3 [' u9 {' p' o- R
– Select a reasonable P/E multiple" n3 J% q* m' m' x! ?5 {3 H
– Preferred by buyers interested in the ongoing operation of the company (i.e.taking over as management)/ q' H% D( d. Q% C8 y0 E7 B
; s1 r3 z/ A; Z0 p• P/E Multiple" @/ ]. S$ W1 p6 h! A
– Rules of thumb;9 b6 W3 a5 x {2 W' z- p
• Mature industries with stable earnings tend to have multiples* @. V$ U! x. r) W( f
from 5 to 15.9 H5 C" D! }7 Q
• High growth industries tend to have multiples exceeding 20.
c- M& g+ K1 g+ @• “Growth is good; risk is rotten!”/ V. A- J1 H7 {+ s3 f( d
– growth increases a multiple
( m, @1 }* b# R2 g. M# {; L& N– risk decreases a multiple$ R8 G' r; k+ g y
+ w" |1 e, M# g7 `4 G, iTheir Associated Ratios
+ h- y3 K% C( e$ |• Profitability;0 x& n$ \% X" K: L" U1 t+ K
– Business goal - to make $$& k: b# u! c6 B- Y. S4 R d+ F
– Ratios measures how much money we had to spend to make $X in sales
1 G) O' ~$ O1 S) r8 P& j• Stability;
- N5 ]& V- m* k– Business goal - to have a stable financial structure (balance its ownership of assets with debt and equity)/ U# w+ N9 Z) F ?
– Ratios measure the firm’s means of financing assets and ability to pay interest on debts6 |! ?( k& k+ K2 G
# I3 M) ]7 _$ z; O' n+ C
5 Financial Goals &Their Associated Ratios$ t' i6 M/ g$ k- s; d
• Liquidity;' r+ j0 U0 e1 R+ d, K: _
– Business goal - ability to meet s-t obligations; n [: o( y2 b+ [" f+ W4 E
– Ratios measure how liquid the firm is (how able the firm is to pay its shortterm+ ~2 B! }& ]. |$ ]& \
obligations)
3 O6 c m! u/ y0 y1 Y• Efficiency;
& [5 F4 }4 C( l) e7 J– Business goal - to efficiently use assets
' b3 A% c8 B. q' w1 Q– Ratios tell us how efficiently we are using our investments
9 m+ z( w3 \2 M6 }9 \, s1 ?/ k3 ^$ K* u" K, S
• Growth;
2 b x. u3 P5 a5 y- ]– Business goal - to increase in size
% K* A0 H7 W6 G– Ratios tell us whether the company is achieving any growth' |9 P2 G3 M9 g1 M& Q& D( L
7 P. e7 l* O" D7 b
Interpreting the Ratios
' z- Q" G% x5 k# C• Profitability;1 j8 E- U8 I9 ~( X6 s- A
– Vertical Analysis (of I/S)
5 [; @+ F- ~6 w; G: `" u' lI/S items * 100 = % 6 L( }5 y/ q" c8 z
Sales
; P' O! C: H' m" ^/ A4 \& j" O! h• Tells us it cost us X% of sales to make those sales6 b5 M3 Q1 {4 S" \3 D
– Return on Investment/Equity
0 U, [& {6 M0 q! ^: ~) i+ T% v+ I% FProfit ATB4D = %
: y; O6 c& C: Q2 j* m5 S) c6 w# A' RAverage Equity
8 [/ W+ I$ g2 U$ b$ r [0 H[(Yr. 1 E + Yr. 2 E)/2]+ D% S1 O+ y6 d, ^! J8 e
• Tells us how much profit we made relative to the investment made by the owners
8 [; z2 j4 O: L6 O' v# @2 W3 M E. X3 |
• Stability;
Z# K/ d9 X/ _: h, n" N# y0 m, b$ c– Net Worth: Total Assets% o/ }$ R3 R3 b
Total Equity = %
6 o% E0 z# d+ H! A' h. V* iTotal Assets* C4 ~* x7 V7 D
• tells us what % of assets were financed through owner’s money
. [- S; Q- T' f0 v– Debt to Assets
5 x' ~$ |& r4 _3 M; Q# s* c; zTotal Debt = % - d- m" F5 Y' \! a! L* E+ f% ~
Total Assets
* a: b. @! f# E4 ~7 ~• Tells us what % of the assets were financed through debt2 P. s0 p# {& ?& ]6 z: j
– Interest Coverage
+ C& ?6 E$ C) B/ k9 g, U EBIT = # times6 B3 W4 \5 H; ?; {5 \! e7 P
Interest Expense. Y2 o- O+ q" N8 f
• tells us how many times we can pay interest4 }9 b1 N- Y1 |
' d9 \1 m( |$ l( p: i- @2 \
• Liquidity;
0 f: \8 g) O& @+ }! @* @– Current Ratio* `) v7 G. U# I
Current Assets = X:1
( o' _3 B9 f. s5 s6 B) [Current Liabilities( i* F/ G- y6 ~0 K: R' i: t, |: G
• Tells us, if we liquidated all our current assets, how many times we can pay our debts
! U6 B% u% g( I! W0 ^RULE OF THUMB: 2:1. [' M1 }& ?7 `* `( _% D5 S
– Acid Test
& ?: w1 n/ B/ t" `Cash + M/S + A/R = X:12 L) K' U W3 @
Current Liabilities$ _1 C m- `: m) i3 \- I6 B. f
• Tells us how many times we can pay our debts with the money easily available to us
! }5 }9 ^# b: q* }: `9 u7 ~RULE OF THUMB: 1:1; z1 J# Y0 y3 p4 t" S' t* C
" K3 h5 G+ j: ^3 G% z– Working Capital$ ^' x4 L9 }0 e9 _" r! g
C.A - C.L = $X* b0 G! E5 u4 u: F$ n- P; H5 }
• Tells us how much money we have to work with AFTER s-t debts are paid
- H4 Z3 } v) n! }9 L0 C0 K9 ^1 ]: {) \+ A
Efficiency;
# \# L9 I# b0 a! }1 h– Age of Receivables
, A, H% g. P$ J* AAccounts Receivabl = # Days, T1 b. e% o7 c( ]: g
(Sales / 365)$ E! w: ^# P6 {' h$ `4 G
• Tells us how long it takes us to collect our $$
% _5 h+ J" W) r: ]; [1 N3 F: {) [6 a: O2 C
– Age Of Payables
0 b: {) c7 Q# R; V; ^Accounts Payable = # Days4 \1 t& E) g( k5 x
(Purchases* / 365)1 a5 \) O2 \) R. u! j$ \
• Tells us how long it takes us to pay our bills
2 {* w( I1 W @/ _- ?- P+ x7 J2 F' n; n0 E8 p8 @
– Age of Inventory' O: B- x$ y7 m9 B* U8 `
Inventory = # Days
- p0 _% e9 R8 K7 t4 ?. A) ~(COGS / 365)
8 Z3 N& n- ^1 v; z! t• Tells us how long we are holding on to our inventory in the warehouse
3 U2 m! i! Q2 h8 r6 u( Q2 I
/ {. I. }7 v l• Growth;
G1 q; d N7 T0 H W: P, a% U– Sales
5 C! A% C5 W) P$ o, c– Net Income4 ^0 L$ F: }1 g6 d8 {+ [: }8 f
– Total Assets' C5 U( n- E! k9 X1 C
– Equity
' h& v7 m/ H) IYr. 2 - Yr. 1 = %
, s5 E6 b G- X8 M& B3 D& o5 B Yr. 1
( d0 u: D9 J/ j( G/ v• Tells us whether the accounts are growing (and hence the company)
. ?& b! ?0 c+ n
* n% ]/ w* ~" t+ h$ [Understanding Ratios
$ g+ {2 X T: U+ ?" l; T( z/ q5 i$ J• DO NOT CONCLUDE THAT “THE RATIO IS GOOD/BAD”
1 s! S. n3 T" P D0 X3 ?, `+ S& U• Either the NUMERATOR or the DENOMINATOR affects the ratio9 i" F4 F! D- x0 M" c
• Ask yourself: “WHY HAS THE RATIO CHANGED & WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?”
+ G' g$ @0 k8 N/ y w! P1 w, {– Which number caused the change?
- Z( c7 m: a0 Z– Look for increasing or decreasing trends over time.2 t/ W5 _# y, c* V( p1 @, x
– Will these trends continue?
3 y/ Z$ ? S5 i0 r* k5 Z; O– How does the company compare to the industry?
/ \ g/ X x; X, F* P( l) Q- y4 Z+ s0 B# q3 Q, |/ i" B
/ O; v. a, D% {( |0 `Classifying Costs4 b: E% m" `5 _: _/ B! Y! L2 k3 w
• Variable Costs
( Y+ a' \2 {* z# s– a cost incurred with every unit sold/produced (volume)
0 Q7 F3 f- B' A- f9 |4 Z7 b7 ^• Fixed Costs
7 ]4 ~! U+ B1 g. M ]. L$ R– cost that does not vary with volume |
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