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虽然知道离Busiess020 的最后考试还有一段时间。但是贴出来给大家先有个映像,别到考试的时候抱佛脚。我还会陆续贴出History028E的去年考试卷子。* ^2 W+ p1 e4 `6 |* }2 C- O! l
( i! N2 ]' o' n7 D( E7 YGM Overview
4 b" L% h9 M% |; W4 P/ } l• Role, Timing, Issues/Decisions, C&Cs7 g5 j' D8 K' g) ?" g
• Objectives
( v/ g0 Y3 |! y# G- j/ S Y– What do we “WANT” to do?9 ]3 T' m- a) ^1 {0 q# l E, a0 \
• External Analysis6 q5 s) R' @/ Y; N' q1 D7 J8 O
– What do we “NEED” to do?
; D% H1 |' J. t5 y3 t0 u8 e– PEST, Consumer, Competition, Trade7 S+ m+ ~% x# @2 s5 Q; B
• opportunities & threats0 z& q3 P2 ]3 c" y$ U
– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs! W# u+ @9 M" B; k" D t
• Internal Analysis# h$ w K7 J% q% B/ U7 ^1 c/ |
– What “CAN” we do?
9 r6 @' i( [+ [7 L0 b( a- P3 a– Finance, Marketing, Ops, HR2 d. w5 u0 q. o( \- V5 ~) }, }
• abilities, strengths & weaknesses" `8 F( n: H2 V2 C9 ?
– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs, CORPORATE CAPABILITIES0 w: M6 T3 U0 y: Z6 x8 _& j8 G
6 _1 n; f* S1 G& Y; |! R l Z
• Alternative Evaluation
Z+ ~+ K7 y. `2 S, ^4 b( X9 {- w– What are the options?" B/ Q5 j% o9 U- g" L4 V
– Evaluate the pros & cons of the options3 W7 n+ \2 p0 } R& J6 n7 A
– How does this option “FIT”?
3 I' ]) ?1 M! F/ k– (you may be able to eliminate options based exclusively on the poor “FIT”qualitatively - if so, make sure you explain why this option was nixed)
9 r1 C0 j( D' r2 U( E– Financial Feasibility (of AT LEAST 2-3 options that might “work”)
9 ^. Y' R% M& o- y: z
* e) O% f+ ~9 g, h• Decision5 V! }4 d" `* _8 Z1 i- K/ M
– Justify why you chose a particular option(s)./ z1 K `0 {+ n1 o
– YOU SHOULD BE CONVINCING
" ]3 ?- ], @$ D+ u/ S- t! M• Which strategy best meets the firm’s objectives?" E% ]: r; a; ?5 D2 h& s
• Does it satisfy the personal objectives as well?: c2 l" C, o) i+ `2 w3 Q" D+ R
• Have you addressed the cons of the chosen alternative?
( Z$ n/ l" O4 n* h- h• Is this decision consistent with the analysis you’ve done? EXPLAIN! (FITS)' w# Z" |$ j. `/ [' x) v
• Why NOT the other options?2 P- ^4 d* ]# I) h+ t" p5 O
• How does this choice affect Finance, Marketing, Ops and HR? What changes; [. X0 z0 y1 A* h0 N% v
need to be made?. P9 t0 D* K. \: {8 e- ^$ X. A5 S
. V( q: r1 t: Z
• Action Plan! j0 R5 j9 a$ @0 E+ y! w' p( g/ U
• Map out a clear and precise implementation plan which includes;4 R# y" }1 v" \- e4 {# X
– details which address what steps you have to take to implement your
6 C' |% c. W- r' ]decision: i$ M4 r, T: L4 E c" x0 N% u
– details about timing* W1 h. Z1 r4 b4 ~
– details about WHO will be responsible for accomplishing the ‘task’
* r0 t) r: k: f– how will you follow-up your plan (measure success)
# G" G1 R- m& z# R– make sure to consider both the short term and long term
y0 _% m: j, w* K% b9 l0 r. g1 @1 `. O B
Firm Valuation
' o! J, q* B* I. D/ r! T) q• Used to help managers determine the “price” of a company.
* b, F/ d2 l% Z• 3 methods of valuing a firm;
$ G" G. a# |( a– Net Book Value/ o8 d* }# w9 P* ?, [
– Economic Appraisal
* y) Y" N/ X+ c) g– Capitalization of Earnings7 |' q# c8 F0 |/ h5 \6 B3 O
• Using all 3 methods (if possible) helps us to determine a RANGE of what the
0 H" T1 }" f! ^! ]$ kcompany is worth." y4 w# e$ r" v1 v/ z
• THINK!!! What are you really selling? Will anyone pay for it? How much will they pay???
, N& l! X! \3 t, @8 K! T; r# u* z+ t1 P! \, l# T" Z- b9 f% F
Net Book Value (NBV)$ H. |" d& |7 w b9 A l
– Total Assets - Total Liabilities
" F, D, `4 u( Q& ?7 K• a.k.a.. the equity
5 e G5 R8 a' x– Does not account for the present market value of the assets
3 c* G1 ]" R9 N# h– Calculated using the most recent given balance sheet
3 A' M' G& m8 r; j7 j– Preferred method for banks, creditors, and/or buyers who are interested in selling off the assets of the business
6 \& D5 u- B- c. W* e7 o1 m
# n1 f/ v! v$ W Economic Appraisal (EA)
9 O- g( r+ W. G5 g– Similar to NBV, but tries to reflect the current market value of the assets- G& ]1 z# q' E1 U8 j! c) @
– Total Appraised Assets – Total Liabilities
# Q2 z" N Y0 P; Q, V0 ]– Preferred by buyers who are interested in a company for its assets
& w3 {. F! u+ a1 o7 C- p2 h3 F9 q- |, o4 f. L
Capitalization of Earnings (CE)8 W. p* w* c9 z5 a+ b( u
– Focuses on the I/S instead of the B/S
5 ]0 G8 w5 q7 ]0 b0 P• Attempt to value the company in terms of the future income it may provide.
) y3 o L* m0 |9 S$ X– NPAT * P/E ratio = value/ p& L) f# j6 v! w# c# i8 E, b
– Must evaluate two different earnings figures (to determine risk & range)
( O3 k M5 u3 `- c; l9 c, \/ {" L• Assuming changes (projected statement)
! d( q5 ?. I9 ^• Assuming no changes (current given I/S)
/ s* w0 K2 Y6 c/ O$ C– Select a reasonable P/E multiple# G0 R: L/ A9 M. E9 W Z2 _
– Preferred by buyers interested in the ongoing operation of the company (i.e.taking over as management)
% R; R& k8 O: D# V! e
. b) X K3 [' T$ Y! B6 p• P/E Multiple
7 f! Q9 W$ Y3 t2 V3 Y: @2 y– Rules of thumb;
0 ]# F: g7 { X2 D0 j) k' ]• Mature industries with stable earnings tend to have multiples
- I: ^( }6 i+ `+ |+ M9 _from 5 to 15.
$ ~! k1 X% K1 W# O• High growth industries tend to have multiples exceeding 20.
. ]8 A8 L3 j& y, Z& R8 m. C0 I* e• “Growth is good; risk is rotten!”* }# Y5 a. d$ A
– growth increases a multiple% g( b/ q* W; V/ A3 L7 r
– risk decreases a multiple& w( ~# l4 O2 x/ L9 V
3 G$ _1 \/ t0 ?- U6 H" l. q" j7 ITheir Associated Ratios; _/ M: M/ j9 k7 I9 J
• Profitability;# ]* S! e) X) ^
– Business goal - to make $$0 L! G( B( x, p ^0 l
– Ratios measures how much money we had to spend to make $X in sales1 [; D. p; W) P7 \" h# e2 `/ s
• Stability;& |/ g- L" r. e x3 i" L
– Business goal - to have a stable financial structure (balance its ownership of assets with debt and equity)4 b, _ L- f8 o( q1 ~9 z
– Ratios measure the firm’s means of financing assets and ability to pay interest on debts5 z3 k! f7 ? q4 W6 R' k J$ m
8 B2 z- p) l* q5 |6 K1 D* P- _4 q5 Financial Goals &Their Associated Ratios8 v/ M6 f3 v& a( Z: V# V9 _/ w
• Liquidity;
9 U* U9 ^; ?2 Y3 @6 ?: W; k– Business goal - ability to meet s-t obligations
0 ?- @1 m3 l. ?– Ratios measure how liquid the firm is (how able the firm is to pay its shortterm/ {/ j% g- i" Z
obligations)4 F- Q/ `& Y8 o5 x$ Y; o
• Efficiency;
; |4 F- e6 R# R; L% }* Z: J– Business goal - to efficiently use assets
$ Y7 ?6 l* Y$ C– Ratios tell us how efficiently we are using our investments
8 Q: n& }' m! o+ L4 b5 w, V) e/ O1 G) i7 x* F( h
• Growth;
' D: b+ [( ?& K0 T– Business goal - to increase in size
( A: N" B9 y) ?7 q4 |– Ratios tell us whether the company is achieving any growth
& d. ?1 l ~! A0 a1 u; b: E* v; P2 u% g4 d5 R/ Y
Interpreting the Ratios
- U f- d. |* B9 z' I* |- p• Profitability;5 i- j/ |* g7 q' Z+ a9 ~
– Vertical Analysis (of I/S); D% e/ a+ B( X( t) E: i4 G; R4 B
I/S items * 100 = %
# z6 b7 m9 S- X Sales) Y8 B: m5 G0 d4 Y. h# Z ~& s
• Tells us it cost us X% of sales to make those sales& L' d+ z+ e4 Y5 c" e
– Return on Investment/Equity
/ r. Y/ S6 H) L3 AProfit ATB4D = %
) S1 c$ j+ `) ~* fAverage Equity
i# `* ?4 m: v4 ]( k2 n# z# N[(Yr. 1 E + Yr. 2 E)/2]7 {+ X) Z9 C; f/ N- [# R3 D) x. c
• Tells us how much profit we made relative to the investment made by the owners8 d- M x! w3 n
$ X9 N( A4 J; q+ j' D
• Stability;# ~& T! Y( U* W) O# ?
– Net Worth: Total Assets
# ^. I) W0 z9 x3 D6 i8 ^+ ^Total Equity = %
3 G- i" O' N3 j1 f3 P# nTotal Assets
3 U4 }; ~ Z$ R! W5 W• tells us what % of assets were financed through owner’s money
0 {* B: p$ N# W– Debt to Assets
. t3 p9 B6 b5 s' h- M: cTotal Debt = %
$ q7 j( v' T4 c+ zTotal Assets
$ Q9 a+ ]) W |7 z' u) o2 Z* h9 P• Tells us what % of the assets were financed through debt/ I' m ]' u8 G7 Y! t
– Interest Coverage0 p; q, K/ F8 S9 b
EBIT = # times) x4 ?$ j) q0 O) S' b
Interest Expense
# e& y! u+ B* |& m3 f- _5 Q• tells us how many times we can pay interest
0 F u% z2 F# v$ d. R4 k: y* C6 P
- W1 w: x5 m- a! }( Z• Liquidity;
9 t# K4 y8 ]& X. K2 k7 j5 Y– Current Ratio4 W$ S' ?" G$ n1 [" B; s0 K5 r
Current Assets = X:1+ x W; k8 ]1 F8 E
Current Liabilities6 A/ ~# g1 e4 v, _( W) `; F% {
• Tells us, if we liquidated all our current assets, how many times we can pay our debts
5 J- ]8 q* U5 r- x v" I( MRULE OF THUMB: 2:1
3 S4 V) G2 R1 g- c– Acid Test
8 S& C0 |9 Y: K4 ?Cash + M/S + A/R = X:14 f0 [. g$ f' k/ q3 K* A( ` T! m
Current Liabilities! E- b* Q$ q0 Z# I: n
• Tells us how many times we can pay our debts with the money easily available to us* } ~$ P# i j/ Q- B
RULE OF THUMB: 1:1
+ N( {4 J7 }2 i# m$ G
0 {( T c1 c- l n/ r: x- s– Working Capital" ~; |: j5 `$ Z6 {3 R) \% L- f& d
C.A - C.L = $X
7 P- u2 ]1 V/ m8 V• Tells us how much money we have to work with AFTER s-t debts are paid8 n4 d4 ]9 Z. k& e
) d8 I" ]! h. F% ~. Z0 A6 UEfficiency;" V7 A4 W* e- w) S
– Age of Receivables
* Q! D0 S! N0 m) z. xAccounts Receivabl = # Days/ S* N5 s8 e' o$ A6 r
(Sales / 365)2 {- @( v4 @1 j) |) y0 u
• Tells us how long it takes us to collect our $$, G' v! ? ?1 q6 T8 U
0 z# T5 D0 X2 e j
– Age Of Payables5 p5 T" W; v! y; T# @) U, ]
Accounts Payable = # Days0 X9 E# C& M, g
(Purchases* / 365)3 p- Z7 {' N* d; u
• Tells us how long it takes us to pay our bills' ^9 ]: b! r9 \0 ^) _+ m* K
/ a0 Q3 F5 r. n7 Y9 u
– Age of Inventory
$ s% m+ g8 y2 G Inventory = # Days
* i& s% F) R& H% ]. ](COGS / 365)$ {/ l. m# r3 X, p
• Tells us how long we are holding on to our inventory in the warehouse7 i6 |/ B7 e4 ^
2 Z4 h4 S+ Z" q" k' C/ l
• Growth;
2 [5 E2 ]3 x9 v/ \( Q– Sales
, W, S% ^$ s9 r8 M; R– Net Income
. o3 v' {, @) i' F– Total Assets5 ]7 ^' x+ r8 c7 n$ I) w. O
– Equity }: G; I" T8 i
Yr. 2 - Yr. 1 = %
, D$ i# ]' ~3 ?$ f! z2 G Yr. 1
: W& p# N2 r' q* x) E# _• Tells us whether the accounts are growing (and hence the company)' I# Y% G& r x# x* e7 J4 G
) r2 n0 G v9 B8 i: b1 cUnderstanding Ratios- g# X$ a( }( s5 l! N7 x+ Y; n
• DO NOT CONCLUDE THAT “THE RATIO IS GOOD/BAD”0 ?+ q8 P8 A _# `' P9 U7 I
• Either the NUMERATOR or the DENOMINATOR affects the ratio" V. }% K4 V. y
• Ask yourself: “WHY HAS THE RATIO CHANGED & WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?”
9 O+ E. z, m+ O& I- z9 U* v– Which number caused the change?
& ^7 z' A8 h( N2 s V0 q% Z: j3 B: o– Look for increasing or decreasing trends over time.
5 P+ j' `5 A5 R4 K9 p: _– Will these trends continue?6 M& X; V8 A e& V2 T4 u; a
– How does the company compare to the industry?
* o I$ M2 }% D+ S8 K2 |8 m
& {/ n& o" e6 e5 _4 X& p; }1 }+ U" x4 g
Classifying Costs, m4 g& s# L& r( O* q' D
• Variable Costs
; v) Q: h& ?+ B$ p+ I- \2 a6 T– a cost incurred with every unit sold/produced (volume)
" x6 E! ]$ r' \' I9 T0 l# X• Fixed Costs7 _6 n/ @- K( {2 |* D! J% X- C
– cost that does not vary with volume |
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